Speculation tax push back.

Source: http://www.oecd.org/social/affordable-housing-database.htm

Since the proposed speculation tax in the 2018 BC budget, the news has blown up with opinion pieces and articles in opposition to this tax. some examples can be found here and here, although there are many more.

Predominately it seems that the majority of the outrage comes down to a misunderstanding of the tax due to a poor choice of naming. That is, the outraged cry is usually along the lines of

"I am not a speculator, I just have a home in Saanich which I only live in a few months in the summer because I love the area" 

True, these individuals are not speculating, but the problem still remains, they own a piece of capital (housing stock) which they are choosing to allow to sit idle while so many individuals in the region are unable to find housing, let alone affordable housing.

Thus the trouble is in the name, this should not be labelled as a speculation tax but rather a vacant homes tax. In this way, we get around the problem that keeps arising from people feeling as if they are being labelled as a speculator while addressing the real problem of an idle capital stock.

The recent article listed above (first hyperlink) by the Times Colonist claims that the new tax will be a job killer as it will depress the housing market due to the fact that people will no longer be buying properties (to sit vacant for the majority of the year).

True, if this tax successfully decreases the housing market - this will hurt the BC economy in the short-run. Currently, the FIRE (Finance, Insurance, Real Estate) industry accounts for about 25% of BCs GDP  (23% in 2012, 24% in 2016), making it the largest contributor to BCs economy by far. That is, if this tax successfully pushes down housing prices, it will ripple through the entire FIRE industry, pushing down BC's GDP, pushing up unemployment (all else equal in the short-run).

Does this then mean its a bad thing? Well yes... but.

The alternative is we do nothing, we allow capital to continue to sit idle, allow housing prices to continue to inflate exponentially faster than wages until we arrive at such a discrepancy (currently being seen in Toronto, Vancouver, etc.) that professionals can no longer afford to live in these municipalities, which similarly hurts jobs as there is no labour to be had. (here, here).

Along these lines talking to several HR professionals in the CRD I am continually hearing the same story that the only applicants they receive are either (A) from established (older, near retirement) Victora applicants or (B) from Vancouver (higher priced market). Any time a qualified applicant is offered a job outside of these two areas the applicant resultingly turns down the offer due to lack of housing.

If labour refuses to move here for jobs then employers have two options. They can either (A) begin to offer higher salaries (which would help offset the cost of living) or (B), if possible, they will relocate to other areas which jointly offer lower wages as well as cheaper land, thus jointly decreasing two costs of production.

So yes, this tax does stand to hurt us today - the alternative is prolonged hardship and a flow of labour out of the region, similarily contracting the economy in the future.

What are your thoughts on the new speculation (vacant homes) tax? will the benefits of this tax outweigh the costs or will the distortionary effects of a tax create more harm than good? feel free to comment below.

BC Budget - Housing

Source: https://www.facebook.com/homeiswhereitstarts/

As expected one of the big highlights of the recent BC Budget (yet to be passed in the legislature) is the focus on implementing new policies in order to deal with the housing affordability issues we have seen in BC over the last decade.

The full BC Budget can be found here, the highlights here, and finally the focus on the housing action plan here.

First some praises for the plan.

The plan, although not perfect, aims to deal with both demand and supply side problems currently being faced by the real-estate market. With these policies being aimed to cool demand and stimulate supply (Contrast this to previous policies such as 0% downpayment loans to help first time home buyers. A policy which further stimulated demand).

On the Demand side:

• Introduction of a speculation tax.
• Increasing the foreign buyers' tax from 15% to 20% and expanding this tax out of Metro Vancouver to include the Fraser Valley, CRD, and Okanagan.
• Increasing property taxes (school tax rate) for properties over $3 million. 
• Actions to prevent speculation and pre-sale condo re-assignments. 

On the Supply Side:

• Government $6 billion dollar investment in affordable housing
• 14,000 rental units for 'middle' working families.
• increasing student residences at universities and colleges.
• Providing changes to property taxes to encourage rentals. 

What does all this mean? Let's start working on the demand side followed by the supply. 

First the speculation tax, other than the announcement of the idea of a speculation tax, we know very little as to what this would entail, as a result, it is difficult to say what effect this may actually have on the market. Just the same, I am under the belief (normatively) that if effectively placed could have a significant impact on cooling the market. I have written several times on the role of speculation in the housing market, starting with this article here.

Second the Foreign Buyers Tax. I have written about this before as well. to be brief - I am not a fan of this policy. To read my reasons why you can find the previous post here.

Increasing property transfer taxes and school rate taxes for properties over $3 million: There is a part of this policy which seems satisfying. Ratchet up the taxes for those rich enough to afford a $3 million mansion, but keep in mind, many of the people who have found themselves owning multi-million dollar properties are seniors, on fixed incomes who have just always lived in their house and seen property values rise exponentially around them! 

I have witnessed several sad experiences where seniors have come into the bank, they had bought their property decades ago, out in the boonies, only to find that now their property has exploded in value, with the property taxes being so high that they can no longer afford to pay them through any method other than a reverse mortgage, or city lien on their property. 

Finally, actions to prevent speculative pre-sale re-assignments of condos. Again my belief is that this could be an effective policy, as with the speculation tax, however, the big question I have is what does this look like and how will it be enforced. 

To the supply side: 

A $6 billion dollar investment over the next ten years. Let me start by saying that a minority government releasing a spending plan over the next ten years is rather wishful and thus leaves me skeptical. 

I am not sure of the exact details or conditions of this $6 billion, so let's assume this money is available as financing, and funding for public institutions to increase rental housing and student residences. 

First, building 14,000 rental units for the 'middle'. This may be a great idea, but ultimately I feel it will fall into the slow molasses of municipality zoning and bylaw processes which many have argued to be the primary supply problem contributing to the current affordability crunch. Thus I am interested to see how this materializes.

If this does materialize and if this materializes as 14,000 new rental units, not just "14,000 rental units over the next 10 years" then this may have an effect of driving down rents in areas like the CRD and Metro Vancouver where rental affordability remains just as much of an issue as purchasing a home (near 0% vacancy rates in both regions). 

An increase in investment for student housing will also help to relieve the pressure on rental markets (again primarily in university towns such as Nanaimo, CRD, Lower Mainland and the Okanagan) by allowing students their own specific residence it frees up more rental units for the rest of the population, thus allowing an increasing vacancy rate and decreasing price pressure for rents. 

In conclusion, there are still a lot of unknowns with this housing action plan, but preliminary evaluation looks promising to slow (or temporarily) reverse the acceleration of home and rental prices through policies aimed at cooling the demand while stimulating the supply. 

In the coming weeks, I am sure the specifics of these policies will be revealed. Given the nature of politics, come that time I may have to retract the optimistic tone I have. 

What are your thoughts on this policy?  I have taken a rather one-sided approach in my discussion above, but all policies are going to have both winners and losers. Think about who the losers are following the imposition of these policies and what this means for them. 

Feel free to comment below. 

Upcoming BC Budget

Source: Times Colonist

With the throne speech recently taking place, and the BC NDP set to deliver their first provincial budget later today. Some key points I'm interested to watch.

First: the notion of $10 a day childcare. Although an interesting proposal ... Currently, parents struggle to find child care at current rates ($600-$700 a month). The problem being if we lower the price and boost the quantity of child care demanded ... How do we satisfy that demand when already childcare provider are in short supply at current rates!

Second, without a doubt, I would expect a large amount of funds to be directed to the Fentanyl crisis. the interesting part to watch is who is going to receive these funds, as I am sure there are many organizations who are jockeying to position themselves to access this. From municipalities (Fire, Police), to addictions and mental health counseling programs, to the greater healthcare system on whole (including BCEHS). I feel the question is not if money is coming for this, but rather who is set to get the money.

Finally; the big topic on many people's minds is housing affordability. This will be one that I am really watching. I have seen a few ideas tossed around between a speculation tax, Short term rental restrictions, "affordable rentals" for low-income families as well as increasing student housing.

All may have differing effects. But I'll be interested to see what is announced.

Your thoughts? Feel free to comment below.